Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis

LIU Qiang; TANG Aiping

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132

Volume 56 Issue 6

Dec. 2021

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University > 2021 > 56(6): 1268-1274, 1289.

LIU Qiang, TANG Aiping. Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1268-1274, 1289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132

Citation:

LIU Qiang, TANG Aiping. Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1268-1274, 1289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132

LIU Qiang, TANG Aiping. Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1268-1274, 1289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132

Citation:

LIU Qiang, TANG Aiping. Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1268-1274, 1289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132

PDF( 2727 KB)

Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132

LIU Qiang,
TANG Aiping^,

School of Civil Engineer，Harbin Institute of Technology，Harbin 150001，China

Received Date: 17 Dec 2019
Rev Recd Date: 12 Jun 2020

Available Online: 07 Jul 2020

Publish Date: 07 Jul 2020

Abstract

Abstract

Due to the large scale and long term of snow disaster in highway of the cold regions, the highway system in Heilongjiang Province and its frequent snowdrift disasters were taken as research objects to explore the macro conditions of disaster formation from the aspect of disaster occurrence mechanism. Based on the probability theory, the possibility, level and intensity of the hazard were linked to clarify the theory of hazard assessment through the joint probability density function of the influencing factors. After finishing the vulnerability assessment of highway transportation network, the snowdrift disaster risk assessment system suitable for cold highway network was constructed. The snowdrift events in February 2017 were evaluated, and compared the prediction results with the road warning issued by the Provincial Meteorological Information Center during this period. The results show that the highest relative risk of the road in the study area during the period is the Hegang−Yichun line, the Suihua section of the Suihua−Daqing line, the Harbin and Jiamusi sections of the Harbin−Tongjiang line, and the surrounding areas of Mudanjiang City. Their relative risk probability is more than 0.69, We need to pay more attention to this section. To a certain extent, this study provides a reference for snow disaster relief and material allocation of highway network in cold regions in the future, and makes the task of disaster prevention and mitigation in cold regions more targeted.
- risk assessment,
- snowdrift disaster,
- joint probability density function,
- hazard zoning,
- highway vulnerability

FullText(HTML)

References(25)

References

[1]	梁伟,冀永进,李海梅. 灾害事件对我国城乡规划的启示[J]. 城市规划,2011,35(2): 26-31. LIANG Wei, JI Yongjin, LI Haimei. Enlightenment of disasters to China’s urban-rural planing[J]. City Planning Review, 2011, 35(2): 26-31.
[2]	YIN Z E, YIN J, XU S Y et al. Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011, 21(2): 274-284. doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0844-7
[3]	史培军. 防灾减灾是国家可持续发展的基础[N]. 中国气象报, 2014-06-11（1）.
[4]	刘艳华,曹蕾,白秀梅. 灾害天气对黑龙江省高速公路交通安全的影响及精细化防御措[J]. 自然灾害学报,2019,28(3): 114-118. LIU Yanhua, CAO Lei, BAI Xiumei. Influence of disaster weather on traffic safety of freeway in Heilongjiang Province and detailed defense measures[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2019, 28(3): 114-118.
[5]	曹玮,秦其明,范一大,等. 中国雪灾评估研究综述[J]. 灾害学,2013,28(4): 152-158. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2013.04.027 CAO Wei, QIN Qiming, FAN Yida, et al. Review on snow disaster assessment in China[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2013, 28(4): 152-158. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2013.04.027
[6]	隋琦,王瑛,李婷,等. 多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估研究[J]. 地球信息科学,2018,20(11): 1571-1578. SUI Qi, WANG Ying, LI Ting, et al. Application of multi-source information fusion in the traffic risk assessment of snow disaster[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2018, 20(11): 1571-1578.
[7]	BERROCAL V J, RAFTERY A E, GNEITING T, et al. Probabilistic weather forecasting for winter road maintenance[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2010, 105(490): 522-537. doi: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap07184
[8]	席建锋,李江,朱光耀,等. 公路风吹雪积雪力学原理与积雪深模型[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版),2006,36(2): 152-156. XI Jiangfeng, LI Jiang, ZHU Guangyao, et al. Hydromechanical mechanism of road snowdrift deposit and its depth model[J]. Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology Edition), 2006, 36(2): 152-156.
[9]	夏才初,周开方,程怡,等. 基于BP神经网络的公路风吹雪雪深预测模型[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(5): 714-721. XIA Caichu, ZHOU Kaifang, CHENG Yi, et al. Prediction modeal of smowdrift on highway based on BP neural newwork[J]. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 2017, 45(5): 714-721.
[10]	高卫东,刘明哲,魏文寿,等. 铁路沿线风吹雪灾害及其防治研究[J]. 中国铁道科学,2004,25(5): 97-101. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-4632.2004.05.019 GAO Weidong, LIU Mingzhe, WEI Wentao, et al. Study on the drifting snow disaster along railway and preventive treatment[J]. China Railway Science, 2004, 25(5): 97-101. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-4632.2004.05.019
[11]	秦华锋,金荣花. “0703”东北暴雪成因的数值模拟研究[J]. 气象,2008,34(4): 30-38. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.04.004 QIN Huafeng, JIN Ronghua. Numerical simulation study of the cause of snow storm process in northeast of China on March 3-5 of 2007[J]. Meteorology, 2008, 34(4): 30-38. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.04.004
[12]	陈长胜,王盘兴,杨秀峰,等. 东北地区暴雪天气的统计学划分方法及其时空分布特征[J]. 地理科学,2012,32(10): 1275-1281. CHEN Changsheng, WANG Panxing, YANG Xiufeng, et al. Classification and features of spatio-temporal variation of snowstorms in northeast China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(10): 1275-1281.
[13]	孟宪宏. 高寒地区公路雪害的预防与治理[J]. 中国科技信息,2016(5): 1-2.
[14]	尹占娥. 自然灾害风险理论与方法研究[J]. 上海师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,41(1): 99-103. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5137.2012.01.014 YIN Zhan’e. Literature review of research on theory and method of natural disaster risk[J]. Journal of Shanghai Normal University (Natural Sciences), 2012, 41(1): 99-103. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5137.2012.01.014
[15]	郭君,孔锋. 自然灾害概率风险历史资料的有效性及其检验[J]. 灾害学,2019,34(3): 21-26. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2019.03.005 GUO Jun, KONG Feng. Validity analysis of historical data for probabilistic risk analysis in natural disaster[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2019, 34(3): 21-26. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2019.03.005
[16]	SAMANTA S, PAL D K, PALSAMANTA B. Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing,GIS and frequency ratio model[J]. Applied Water Science, 2018, 8(2): 65-78. doi: 10.1007/s13201-018-0711-0
[17]	王中隆,张志忠. 中国风吹雪区划[J]. 山地学报,1999,17(4): 312-317. WANG Zhonglong, ZHANG Zhizhong. Regionalization of snow drift China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 1999, 17(4): 312-317.
[18]	尹洪英,徐丽群. 道路交通网络脆弱性评估研究现状与展望[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(3): 7-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6744.2010.03.002 YIN Hongying, XU Liqun. Vulnerability assessment of transportation networks[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2010, 10(3): 7-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6744.2010.03.002
[19]	JIANG Y Z, PENG J H, FENG W W. A review on the classification and grading criteria of road transport natural disasters[J]. Journal of Architectural Research and Development, 2018, 2(5): 10-12.
[20]	秦军,曹云刚,秦娟. 汶川地震灾区道路损毁度遥感评估模型[J]. 西南交通大学学报,2010,45(5): 768-774. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2010.05.019 QIN Jun, CAO Yungang, QIN Juan. Evaluation model for damage extent of roads in wenchuan earthquake stricken areas based on remote sensing information[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2010, 45(5): 768-774. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2010.05.019
[21]	李华蓉,郭敏,潘建平,等. 重庆市山区公路雪灾等级划分及预警评估模型研究[J]. 公路交通技术,2010(2): 27-30. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6477.2010.02.007 LI Huarong, GUO Min, PAN Jianping, et al. Classification for snow disasters on expressways in mountainous area of Chongqing and research on warning evaluation model[J]. Technology of Highway and Transport, 2010(2): 27-30. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6477.2010.02.007
[22]	孙梦婷,魏海,李星,等. 基于路况数据的城市道路交通事件点检测[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2019,35(6): 9-14. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2019.06.002 SUN Mengting, WEI Hai, LI Xing, et al. Traffic incident point detection of urban road based on traffic data[J]. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2019, 35(6): 9-14. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2019.06.002
[23]	陈报章,仲崇庆. 自然灾害风险损失等级评估的初步研究[J]. 灾害学,2010,25(3): 1-5. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2010.03.001 CHEN Baozhang, ZHONG Chongqing. A preliminary study on risk loss degree assessment of natural hazards[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2010, 25(3): 1-5. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2010.03.001
[24]	李宁,张鹏. 全国减灾救灾标准解读系列四《自然灾害风险分级方法》解读[J]. 中国减灾,2015(11): 56-59.
[25]	吴吉东,何鑫,王菜林,等. 自然灾害损失分类及评估研究评[J]. 灾害学,2018,33(4): 157-163. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.04.026 WU Jidong, HE Xin, WANG Cailin, et al. A review on classification and loss assessment of natural disasters[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33(4): 157-163. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.04.026

Relative Articles

[1]	JIA Hongyu, XIAO Chuzhao, KANG Wei, WANG Chuanqi, ZHENG Shixiong. Review of Research on Vulnerability of Transportation Infrastructure to Extreme Climatic Conditions[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2025, 60(2): 484-502. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20230650
[2]	TIAN Wen, ZHOU Xuefang, FANG Qin, SONG Jinjin. Vulnerability Analysis of En-route Network Based on Cascading Failure[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2025, 60(2): 317-325, 355. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20220755
[3]	ZHAO Xueting, HU Liwei, KOU Fangling. Determination of Influence Range of Urban Traffic Congestion and Identification of Key Road Sections[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2024, 59(6): 1389-1397. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20220413
[4]	FAN Wenli, YE Yurun, LI Quanyou, XIAO Yeqi, XIONG Liying, HE Xiaofeng. Identification of Vulnerable Lines in Power Grid Based on Power Flow Correlation Network[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2024, 59(5): 1006-1013. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210535
[5]	LI Hongzhe, YAN Lianshan, CHEN Jianyi, LI Saifei, XU Sirun. Risk Assessment Method of High-Speed Railway Signal Systems Based on Threat Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2022, 57(6): 1334-1341. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210113
[6]	SHI Zhou, LIU Dongdong, JI Feng, FENG Chuanbao. Construction Risk Assessment of Super-Large Open Caisson Foundation[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1241-1249. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191056
[7]	WU Boqian, CAI Baigen, LU Debiao, WANG Jian. GNSS/INS Based Risk Assessment in Train Localization[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2020, 55(6): 1191-1198. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20190981
[8]	LÜ Biao, LIU Yiliu, LIU Haixu. Urban Road Network Design with Balance between Vulnerability and Reliability[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2019, 54(5): 1093-1103. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20180812
[9]	LI Xiaolei, TANG Boming, SONG Qianghui. Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Multi-Climatic Coupling Sections of Expressway in Fog Area[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2018, 53(5): 1039-1047. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2018.05.022
[10]	CHENG Zhiyou, WANG Pingyi, YANG Chengyu, WANG Shixian, ZHENG Jie, LI Yaling. Control Mode of Waterway Traffic under Dangerous Mountain Landslide Conditions[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2018, 53(4): 748-755. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2018.04.012
[11]	HAN Xing, CUI Sheng'ai, CUI Enqi, SU Jiao, ZHU Bing. Earthquake Risk Assessment of Bridge Based on Failure Probability Method[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2018, 53(4): 696-703. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2018.04.005
[12]	LI Sihui, CAI Baigen, XU Aiguo, SHANGGUAN Wei, WEN Yinghong, WANG Jian. Autonomous-Positioning Information Aided Train Integrity Detection Risk Analysis Method[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2017, 30(5): 886-892. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2017.05.007
[13]	LIU Duote, LI Yongle, WANG Bin. Influence of Skew Wind on Snow Drifting and Snow Deposition Around a Ground Object[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2016, 29(6): 1105-1112,1197. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2016.06.009
[14]	YANG Junyi, CHEN Jianbing, LI Jie. Probability Density Evolution Analysis of Nonlinear Seismic Response of Structures with Random Parameters Following Different Distributions[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2015, 28(6): 1047-1054. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2015.06.010
[15]	SONG Pengyan, LÜ, Dagang, YU Xiaohui, WANG Guangyuan. Probability Density Evolution Analysis for Stochastic Dynamic Seismic Responses of Structures Based on Improved Point Estimation Method[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2014, 27(2): 227-232. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2014.02.007
[16]	PENG Yongbo, LI Jie. Probability Density Evolution Method of Nonlinear Random Vibration Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2014, 27(2): 220-226. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2014.02.006
[17]	LIU Zhangjun, XIONG Min, WAN Yong. Seismic Reliability Analysis of Continuous Rigid Frame Bridge Using Probability Density Evolution Method[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2014, 27(1): 39-44. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2014.01.007
[18]	ZHANG Zhaoning, LIU Jimin, Wang Lili. Assessment of Longitudinal Collision Risk on Parallel Routes Based on Communication,Navigation,and Surveillance Performances[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2009, 22(6): 918-925.

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

1.	练继建，杨德明，赵新. 南水北调中线工程冬季输水冰情风险研究. 水利水电科技进展. 2023(01): 63-70 .
2.	王瑞祥，魏静，刘佳昕，闫志越，刘强. 京新高速（G7）新疆伊吾——木垒段风吹雪特征及危险度评价. 冰川冻土. 2023(04): 1314-1326 .

Other cited types(8)

Proportional views

Proportional views

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Figures(7) / Tables(3)

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views(459) PDF downloads(25)