- ISSN 0258-2724
- CN 51-1277/U
- EI Compendex
- Scopus
- Indexed by Core Journals of China, Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
- Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
- Chinese Science Citation Database
| Citation: | LIU Qiang, TANG Aiping. Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1268-1274, 1289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191132
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Due to the large scale and long term of snow disaster in highway of the cold regions, the highway system in Heilongjiang Province and its frequent snowdrift disasters were taken as research objects to explore the macro conditions of disaster formation from the aspect of disaster occurrence mechanism. Based on the probability theory, the possibility, level and intensity of the hazard were linked to clarify the theory of hazard assessment through the joint probability density function of the influencing factors. After finishing the vulnerability assessment of highway transportation network, the snowdrift disaster risk assessment system suitable for cold highway network was constructed. The snowdrift events in February 2017 were evaluated, and compared the prediction results with the road warning issued by the Provincial Meteorological Information Center during this period. The results show that the highest relative risk of the road in the study area during the period is the Hegang−Yichun line, the Suihua section of the Suihua−Daqing line, the Harbin and Jiamusi sections of the Harbin−Tongjiang line, and the surrounding areas of Mudanjiang City. Their relative risk probability is more than 0.69, We need to pay more attention to this section. To a certain extent, this study provides a reference for snow disaster relief and material allocation of highway network in cold regions in the future, and makes the task of disaster prevention and mitigation in cold regions more targeted.
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