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基于有限理性的交通网络可靠性均衡模型

孙超 尹浩为 张玮 李孟晖

孙超, 尹浩为, 张玮, 李孟晖. 基于有限理性的交通网络可靠性均衡模型[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2023, 58(1): 83-90. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210679
引用本文: 孙超, 尹浩为, 张玮, 李孟晖. 基于有限理性的交通网络可靠性均衡模型[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2023, 58(1): 83-90. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210679
SUN Chao, YIN Haowei, ZHANG Wei, LI Menghui. Traffic Equilibrium Model of Reliable Network Based on Bounded Rationality[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2023, 58(1): 83-90. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210679
Citation: SUN Chao, YIN Haowei, ZHANG Wei, LI Menghui. Traffic Equilibrium Model of Reliable Network Based on Bounded Rationality[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2023, 58(1): 83-90. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210679

基于有限理性的交通网络可靠性均衡模型

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20210679
基金项目: 教育部人文社会科学研究基金(22YJCZH153);国家自然科学基金(71801115);江苏省研究生实践创新计划(SJCX22_1877);中国博士后科学基金(2021M691311); 江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2022SJYB2221)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    孙超(1990—),男,副教授,博士,研究方向为城市交通网络建模和城市低碳交通系统,E-mail: chaosun@ujs.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: U491

Traffic Equilibrium Model of Reliable Network Based on Bounded Rationality

  • 摘要:

    为探索交通系统不确定性和出行者心理感知差异对出行路径选择行为的影响,将路网可靠性和有限理性融入出行者的路径选择决策中,提出双目标交通网络均衡模型. 为应对模型多解问题,建立出行可靠性和有限理性下的贝叶斯随机用户均衡模型,运用贝叶斯统计和双层规划框架估计权重系数,采用变分不等式刻画交通均衡模型;分别设计迭代算法(iterative algorithm,IA)和相继平均算法(method of successive average,MSA)求解贝叶斯权重系数估计和变分不等式交通网络均衡模型. 算例表明:随着观测变量和输入变量扰动变小,估计参数的均方根误差逐步减小;IA在运行15 s后均方根误差达到0.05,MSA在1 s内收敛精度达到10−6;变分不等式均衡模型可以同时反映出行者的风险态度和有限理性决策过程.

     

  • 图 1  有限理性出行时间阈值曲线

    Figure 1.  Threshold curves of boundedly rational travel time

    图 2  Nguyen-Dupuis网络属性

    Figure 2.  Property of Nguyen-Dupuis network

    图 3  估计权重的RMSE随观测路段流量和输入需求扰动的影响

    Figure 3.  RMSE of estimated weights with different disturbances of observed flows and input ODs

    图 4  算法中RMSE收敛过程

    Figure 4.  Convergence process of RMSE

    图 5  MSA算法收敛过程

    Figure 5.  Convergence process of MSA

    图 6  平均出行时间、有限理性阈值、可靠出行时间和路径流量演化过程

    Figure 6.  Evolution processes of mean travel time, boundedly rational threshold, reliable travel time, and traffic flow

    表  1  算例1的模型均衡解

    Table  1.   Equilibrium results of proposed model for case 1

    OD路径时间均值/min有限理
    性阈值/min
    权重
    系数
    可靠出
    行时间/min
    感知多目标出行阻抗均值/min流量/辆
    1—2 1—12—8—2 35.94 7.69 2.00 0.52 44.67 368.24
    1—5—6—7—8—2 38.36 0.70 47.45 23.02
    1—5—6—7—11—2 40.35 0.72 49.48 3.02
    1—5—6—10—11—2 43.77 0.25 51.96 0.25
    1—5—9—10—11—2 44.41 0.20 52.50 0.15
    1—12—6—7—8—2 40.04 0.66 49.05 4.65
    1—12—6—7—11—2 42.04 0.67 51.07 0.61
    1—12—6—10—11—2 45.46 0.07 53.29 0.07
    1—3 1—5—6—7—11—3 39.58 8.20 1.50 0.72 48.86 327.15
    1—5—6—10—11—3 43.01 0.26 51.60 21.28
    1—5—9—10—11—3 43.65 0.21 52.17 12.07
    1—12—6—7—11—3 41.27 0.68 50.49 64.53
    1—12—6—10—11—3 44.69 0.10 53.04 5.04
    1—5—9—13—3 39.85 0.46 48.74 369.93
    4—2 4—5—6—7—8—2 39.66 8.21 2.50 0.67 49.55 302.33
    4—5—6—7—11—2 41.66 0.69 51.60 39.21
    4—5—6—10—11—2 45.08 0.18 53.74 4.66
    4—9—10—11—2 41.41 0.05 49.75 250.74
    4—5—9—10—11—2 45.72 0.09 54.16 3.05
    4—3 4—5—6—7—11—3 40.89 7.82 3.00 0.70 50.81 1.40
    4—5—6—10—11—3 44.31 0.19 52.70 0.21
    4—5—9—10—11—3 44.95 0.11 53.10 0.14
    4—9—13—3 36.84 0.42 45.92 184.53
    4—5—9—13—3 41.15 0.42 50.23 2.43
    4—9—10—11—3 40.64 0.08 48.70 11.30
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-08-17
  • 修回日期:  2022-01-26
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-10-28
  • 刊出日期:  2022-03-05

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