Traffic Flow Time Series Periodicity Based on Recurrence Quantitative Analysis
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摘要: 为了提高交通流量的预测精度,用重现图和重现定量分析法,定量分析了交通流量时间序列的周期特 性,并利用BP神经网络法和K近邻法,对短时交通流量进行了预测.实例分析表明:不同统计时间间隔和不同 时段的交通流量时间序列的周期特性不同.统计时间间隔为5min的交通流量时间序列有较好的实时性和较强 的周期性.交通流量时间序列的周期特性与预测精度正相关,夜间交通流周期性弱,预测精度为87.41%;日间 交通流周期性强,预测精度为92.16%.Abstract: In order to improve traffic flow prediction accuracy, recurrence plot and recurrence quantitative analysis were introduced to analyze the traffic flow time series periodicity. Further more, the prediction methods BPNN(back propagation neural network) and K-NN(nearest neighbor) were employed to predict the short-term traffic flows with different periodicity. The result of an empirical study indicates that the traffic flow time series periodicity differs with the length of statistical time interval and the time period in a day. The traffic flow time series with a statistical time interval of 5 min show a good real-time performance and a strong periodicity. The periodicity has a positive correlation with the prediction accuracy of short-term traffic flow: The traffic flow in night time has a weak periodicity for which the prediction accuracy is 87.41%, while the traffic flow in day time has a strong periodicity for which the prediction accuracy is 92.16%.
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