冰碛湖溃决危险区铁路沿河线方案评价方法

张聪; 姚令侃; 黄艺丹; 邱燕玲; 谭礼

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20200696

冰碛湖溃决危险区铁路沿河线方案评价方法

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20200696

张聪^1,,
姚令侃^{1, 2, 3, ,},
黄艺丹^{1, 2, 3},
邱燕玲⁴,
谭礼¹

1.
西南交通大学土木工程学院，四川成都 610031
2.
西南交通大学高速铁路线路工程教育部重点实验室，四川成都 610031
3.
西南交通大学陆地交通地质灾害防治技术国家工程实验室，四川成都 610031
4.
中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司，四川成都 610031

基金项目: 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目（2021QZKK0202）；国家自然科学基金（41571004）；国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0802206）；四川省重点研发项目（20GJHZ0205）

详细信息

作者简介:
张聪（1989—），男，博士研究生，研究方向为复杂艰险山区铁路减灾选线理论与技术，E-mail：zhangcong@my.swjtu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
姚令侃（1953—），男，教授，博导，研究方向为复杂艰险山区铁路减灾选线理论与技术，E-mail：yaolk@home.swjtu.edu.cn

中图分类号: U212.3
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- PDF下载量: 28
- 被引次数: 8
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-10-15
- 修回日期: 2021-01-24
- 网络出版日期: 2022-08-29
- 刊出日期: 2021-04-29

Evaluation Method of Railway Schemes Along Rivers in Risk Areas of Moraine-Dammed Lake Outburst

ZHANG Cong^1
,,
YAO Lingkan^{1, 2, 3
, ,},
HUANG Yidan^{1, 2, 3},
QIU Yanling⁴,
TAN Li¹

1.
School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China
2.
Key Laboratory of High-Speed Railway Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China
3.
National Engineering Laboratory for Technology of Geological Disaster Prevention in Land Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China
4.
China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610031, China

摘要

摘要:
为建立青藏高原南缘冰碛湖溃决危险区铁路方案风险评价方法，首先，对青藏高原南缘74例冰碛湖溃决灾害实例溃决机制进行统计分析；在此基础上，针对冰碛湖溃决影响因素众多、关系复杂且具有高度不确定性的特点，利用多态贝叶斯网络建立了冰碛湖溃决概率预测模型；然后，以冰碛湖溃决危险区沿河线路工程为承灾体，综合冰碛湖溃决危险性评估与沿河线河谷地貌特征提出了各类风险区线路长度计算程式，建立了针对冰碛湖溃决危险性的铁路选线方案评价方法；最后，以中尼铁路跨喜马拉雅段的樟木、吉隆局部走向方案为例，说明评价方法的作业程式. 研究结果表明：樟木方案在冰碛湖分布区的线路长度小于吉隆方案，从选线角度属于线路短直方案，但樟木方案各风险区段线路总长超出吉隆方案约45%；从冰碛湖溃决风险角度，吉隆方案优于樟木方案.
- 冰碛堰塞湖溃决 /
- 贝叶斯网络 /
- 中尼铁路 /
- 危险性评估
Abstract:
This study is aimed at risk assessments of railway schemes in moraine-dammed lake outburst risk areas in the southern Tibet Plateau. Based on the mechanism analysis of 74 outburst events in the study area, a multi-state Bayesian-Network prediction model is established considering the complex relationships among the influencing factors and high uncertainties of the outburst events. Taking the railway line engineering along rivers in moraine-dammed lake outburst risk areas as the hazard bearing body and combining the risk assessment of moraine-dammed lakes with geomorphological characteristics of the river valley, a calculation program of the railway scheme length in various risk areas and an evaluation system for railway schemes considering moraine-dammed lake outburst risk are proposed. In addition, the operation procedure of the proposed method is demonstrated taking the Zhangmu and Gyirong schemes of the China-Nepal railway as examples The results show that the Zhangmu scheme has a smaller route length in the moraine lake distribution area than the Gyirong scheme, and belongs to the short straight scheme from the perspective of route selection; however, the total length of the Zhangmu scheme in each risk area exceeds that of the Gyirong scheme by about 45%. Therefore, the Gyirong scheme is the better selection when considering the moraine lake outburst risk.
- moraine-dammedlake outburst /
- B-Ns /
- China–Nepal railway /
- risk assessment

HTML全文

图 1 青藏高原南缘冰川、冰湖及冰碛湖溃决灾害分布

Figure 1. Distributions of glaciers, glacier lakes and moraine-dammed lake outburst events in the southern Tibet Plateau

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 冰碛湖溃决B-Ns模型

Figure 2. B-Ns model of moraine-dammedlakes outburstrisk

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 基于B-Ns的冰湖溃决危险性评估程式

Figure 3. Risk assessment procedure for moraine-dammed lake outburst based on B-Ns method

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 各类风险区线路长度计算流程

Figure 4. Calculation process of the railway line length in different risk areas

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 吉隆、波曲流域危险冰碛湖与线路方案示意

Figure 5. Railway schemes and distribution of dangerous moraine-dammed lakes in the Gyirong and Poiqu river

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 青藏高原南缘冰碛湖主要溃决机制统计

Table 1. Main outburst mechanisms of the moraine-dammed lakes in the southern Tibet Plateau

冰碛湖主要溃决机制	案例数	占比/%
（冰崩/冰滑坡）涌浪漫顶	46	74.2
（降雨/冰川融水）洪水漫顶	12	19.4
管涌	5	8.1
冰碛物坍塌	5	8.1
外界动力激发	1	1.6

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 根节点因素多区间状态划分标准

Table 2. Division of risk factors in multi-interval safety states for root nodes

二级指标变量	二级指标状态值
二级指标变量	0	1
x₁/（°）	< 8	> 8
x₂	< 0.11	> 0.11
x₃/km	> 1	< 1
x₄	相对不发育	相对较发育
x₅	< 0.23	> 0.23
x₆/m	> 60	< 60
x₇	固结	松散
x₈	未满水	满水
x₉	< 0.20	> 0.20
x₁₀/（°）	< 20	> 20
x₁₁	无/少量	丰富
x₁₂	< 0.25g	> 0.25g

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表 3 冰碛湖溃决根节点的先验概率

Table 3. Prior probabilities of root nodes of moraine-dammed lake outburst

节点	状态数量	先验概率
节点	状态数量	状态 1	状态 2
x₁	2	0.524	0.476
x₂		0.286	0.714
x₃		0.625	0.375
x₄		0.192	0.808
x₅		0.632	0.368
x₆		0.240	0.760
x₇		0.823	0.177
x₈		0.423	0.577
x₉		0.577	0.423
x₁₀		0.712	0.288
x₁₁		0.481	0.519
x₁₂		0.900	0.100

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 中间节点y₁的条件概率

Table 4. Conditional probabilities of node y_₁

x₁	x₂	x₃	x₄	x₅	y₁
x₁	x₂	x₃	x₄	x₅	0	1	2
0	0	0	0	0	1.0	0	0
0	0	0	0	1	1.0	0	0
0	0	0	1	0	1.0	0	0
0	0	0	1	1	0.2	0.8	0
0	0	1	0	0	1.0	0	0
0	0	1	0	1	0.2	0.8	0
$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$
1	1	1	0	1	0	0.2	0.8
1	1	1	1	0	0	0.2	0.8
1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1.0

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 铁路方案冰碛湖溃决危险性评价指标

Table 5. Evaluation indexes of railway schemes considering moraine-dammed lake outburst risk

指标名称	比选因素
流域指标	冰碛湖总数量/个
	冰碛湖总面积/km²
	历史冰碛湖溃决案例数/次
线路指标	冰碛湖分布区线路总长度/km
	溃决高风险区段线路长度/km
	溃决次高风险区段线路长度/km
	溃决中风险区段线路长度/km

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表 6 吉隆、樟木线路方案比选表

Table 6. Comparison of the railway schemes in the Gyirong and Poiqu river basins

指标类型	比选因素	吉隆	樟木
流域指标	冰碛湖总数量/个	130	121
	冰碛湖总面积/ km²	5.8	17.3
	历史冰碛湖溃决次数/次	2	6
线路指标	冰碛湖分布区线路长度/ km	107.9	93.5
	冰碛湖溃决高危险区段线路长度/ km	21.2	38.3
	冰碛湖溃决次高危险区段线路长度/ km	54.1	132.0
	冰碛湖溃决中危险区段线路长度/ km	10.5	54.1

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