• ISSN 0258-2724
  • CN 51-1277/U
  • EI Compendex
  • Scopus 收录
  • 全国中文核心期刊
  • 中国科技论文统计源期刊
  • 中国科学引文数据库来源期刊

超大型沉井基础的施工风险评估

施洲 刘东东 纪锋 冯传宝

张迎宾, 董琰, 陈岩岩, 李小琴, 富海鹰, 程谦恭, 魏江涛. 基于强度衰减的Vajont滑坡运动特征非连续变形分析[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2021, 56(6): 1205-1213. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20190913
引用本文: 施洲, 刘东东, 纪锋, 冯传宝. 超大型沉井基础的施工风险评估[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2021, 56(6): 1241-1249. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191056
ZHANG Yingbin, DONG Yan, CHEN Yanyan, LI Xiaoqin, FU Haiying, CHENG Qiangong, WEI Jiangtao. Effects of Strength Degradation of Sliding Mass on Movement of Vajont Landslide Numerical Simulation Based on Discontinuous Deformation Analysis[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1205-1213. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20190913
Citation: SHI Zhou, LIU Dongdong, JI Feng, FENG Chuanbao. Construction Risk Assessment of Super-Large Open Caisson Foundation[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2021, 56(6): 1241-1249. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191056

超大型沉井基础的施工风险评估

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20191056
基金项目: 中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划重大课题(2017G006-A)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    施洲(1979—),男,副教授,博士,研究方向为桥梁结构试验,桥梁健康监测,E-mail:zshi1979@swjtu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: U445.1;U443.13.1

Construction Risk Assessment of Super-Large Open Caisson Foundation

  • 摘要:

    超大型沉井基础受尺寸巨大、地质条件复杂等因素影响,在施工阶段具有较高的安全及质量风险. 为准确有效地实现大型锚碇沉井基础施工过程的风险评估,采用工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS),并结合专家调查法进行施工全过程风险识别;基于分解结构估测风险事件概率及损失等级从而确定初始风险分解矩阵,通过模糊层次分析(FAHP)法分析各类风险权重对其加权修正,并以修正风险矩阵值评估风险等级;采用该风险评估方法开展连镇铁路五峰山长江大桥北锚碇沉井基础施工风险评估. 研究结果表明:基于WBS-RBS法及专家调查法识别出“井壁开裂”等158项风险源;逐项计算初始风险值、综合风险值权重,并按等级划分标准评估出修正风险值大于1.696的“沉井突沉”“几何偏斜”等重大风险源共16项;针对重大风险源提出施工专项方案、实时施工监控及风险预案等措施控制. 为该沉井基础工程施工风险控制提供了依据,并为类似工程风险评估与控制提供借鉴.

     

  • 图 1  WBS-RBS风险分解矩阵

    Figure 1.  Event risk breakdown matrix of WBS-RBS

    图 2  风险等级评估流程

    Figure 2.  Operation flowchart of risk assessment

    图 3  沉井结构示意(单位: cm)

    Figure 3.  Layout of the caisson structure (unit: cm)

    图 4  沉井基础施工阶段工作分解结构

    Figure 4.  WBS structure of the open caisson foundation during construction stage

    表  1  风险概率等级区间划分标准

    Table  1.   Interval division standard of risk probability grades

    等级概率值区间区间描述
    1P < 0.0003几乎不可能发生
    20.0003 ≤ P < 0.0030很少发生
    30.0030 ≤ P < 0.0300偶尔发生
    40.0300 ≤ P < 0.3000可能发生
    5P ≥ 0.3000频繁发生
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  风险等级划分标准

    Table  2.   Risk classification criteria

    轻度Ⅰ中度Ⅱ高度Ⅲ重大Ⅳ
    < 17/k[17/k~22.5/k)[22.5/k~23.75/k] > 23.75/k
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  沉井工程风险分解

    Table  3.   Risk decomposition table for caisson engineering

    顶层指示二级指标三级指标
    沉井施
    工阶段
    风险 R
    建设条件风险 R1地质风险 R1-1
    水文风险 R1-2
    气象风险 R1-3
    周边施工条件风险 R1-4
    结构设计风险 R2整体设计风险 R2-1
    局部构造设计风险 R2-2
    节段构造设计风险 R2-3
    施工工艺风险 R3结构或设备性能风险 R3-1
    施工方法/工艺风险 R3-2
    智能施工及技术风险 R3-3
    几何姿态偏斜风险 R3-4
    组织管理/监控
    风险 R4
    施工防护风险 R4-1
    监控与管理风险 R4-2
    桥梁结构影响
    风险 R5
    结构变位风险 R5-1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  沉井施工风险调查表(部分)

    Table  4.   Questionnaire on the open caisson construction risks (part)

    指标层元素风险事件当前状态假定采取的缓解风险措施风险发生概率级别风险损失级别评定理由
    人员伤亡经济损失环境影响
    W3-2 井底翻砂 水位监控 加强监测局部土层探查 4 1 4 1 常发事故
    经过局部软弱土层 严格验算,规范施工 工艺详细要求 3 1 3 1 常发事故
    沉井倾斜 可控不均匀下沉 加强监测,多手段纠斜 4 1 4 1 常发事故
    沉井侧移 可控不均匀下沉 调直后下沉 4 1 4 1 常发事故
    沉井扭转 可控不均匀下沉 可控偏斜施工 4 1 4 1 常发事故
    井外塌陷 防护警示,陷坑填筑 正常施工 4 2 4 2 常发事故
    沉井突沉 短期下沉困难 空气幕法助沉 4 2 4 1 发生风险小
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  二级指标元素判断矩阵

    Table  5.   Element judgment matrix of secondary indicators

    RR1R2R3R4R5权重 ωi
    R111/41/61/430.068 5
    R2411/2470.306 6
    R3621480.450 6
    R441/41/4140.137 1
    R51/31/71/81/410.037 3
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  施工技术风险判断矩阵

    Table  6.   Risk judgment matrix of construction technology

    R3R3-1R3-2R3-3R3-4
    R3-111/31/61/5
    R3-2311/31/3
    R3-36312
    R3-4531/21
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  重大风险源加权风险值表

    Table  7.   Weighted risk values of major risk sources

    序号风险事件WBSRBS权重加权风险值
    1沉井突沉W3-3R3-30.2132.553
    2滞沉W3-3R3-30.2132.099
    3井底翻砂W3-3R3-40.1442.027
    4姿态偏斜W3-3R3-40.1441.894
    5沉井扭转W3-3R3-40.1441.950
    6井周塌陷W3-3R3-40.1442.007
    7井底涌水W3-3R3-40.1441.999
    8井壁/隔墙变形
    过大或开裂
    W3-4R3-30.2131.863
    9刃脚及隔墙破损W3-4R2-20.0791.877
    10纠偏纠斜失效W3-5R3-30.2131.801
    11大堤变形超限W3-4R4-20.0981.620
    12基础下土体扰动W5-1R3-30.2131.833
    13电塔倾斜W3-4R4-20.0981.808
    14不良性质地层W3-2R3-20.0671.712
    15锚碇偏心力W5-2R2-10.1951.685
    16井上墩柱偏心W5-2R2-10.1951.697
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  8  风险类型比较(RBS)

    Table  8.   Comparison of risk types (RBS)

    项目R1R2R3R4R5-1
    R1-1R1-2R1-3R1-4R2-1R2-2R2-3R3-1R3-2R3-3R3-4R4-1R4-2
    权重0.0410.0070.0030.0170.1950.0790.0320.0280.0660.2130.1440.0390.0980.037
    累计加权风险值3.9130.2350.0901.2859.3755.7810.5141.1286.79540.20620.2611.0974.9941.790
    排序7131493512104121168
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  9  工作风险比较(WBS)

    Table  9.   Comparison of construction works (WBS)

    项目W1W2W3W4W5W6
    W1-1W1-2W2-1W2-2W3-1W3-2W3-3W3-4W3-5W4-1W4-2W4-3W4-4W5-1W5-2W6-1W6-2
    累计风险值1.0372.2517.1961.5155.01910.15729.5358.1864.9892.1470.2714.8180.8575.0768.2223.6352.555
    排序1512514721481317916631011
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] 褚晶磊,马建林,蒋炳楠,等. 水中沉井下沉期侧壁摩阻力分布试验研究[J]. 岩土工程学报,2019,41(4): 707-716.

    CHU Jinglei, MA Jianlin, JIANG Bingnan, et al. Experimental study on the distribution of side wall friction during the sinking period of submerged caisson[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2019, 41(4): 707-716.
    [2] 穆保岗,朱建民,龚维明,等. 悬索桥大型沉井排水下沉控制的关键问题分析[J]. 中国公路学报,2013,26(6): 118-127. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2013.06.017

    MU Baogang, ZHU Jianmin, GONG Weiming, et al. Key issues of drainage subsidence control for large caisson of suspension bridge[J]. Journal of China Highway, 2013, 26(6): 118-127. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2013.06.017
    [3] 郑大超,朱斌. 武汉杨泗港长江大桥2号墩钢沉井施工关键技术[J]. 桥梁建设,2017,47(6): 106-110. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-4722.2017.06.019

    ZHENG Dachao, ZHU Bin. Key technologies of steel caisson construction for pier 2 of yangsigang yangtze river bridge in Wuhan[J]. Bridge Construction, 2017, 47(6): 106-110. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-4722.2017.06.019
    [4] 余本俊. 大型钢沉井整节段制造、运输与现场接高施工技术[J]. 桥梁建设,2013,43(2): 110-115.

    YU Benjun. Construction technology of whole section manufacture,transportation and site connection of large steel caisson[J]. Bridge Construction, 2013, 43(2): 110-115.
    [5] HILLSON D. Using a risk breakdown structure in project management[J]. Journal of Facilities Management, 2003, 2(1): 85-97. doi: 10.1108/14725960410808131
    [6] SIAMI-IRDEMOOSA E, DINDARLOO S R, SHARIF-ZADEH M. Work breakdown structure (WBS) develop-ment for underground construction[J]. Automation in Construction, 2015, 58: 85-94. doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2015.07.016
    [7] HILLSON D, GRIMALDI S, RAFELE C. Managing project risks using a cross risk breakdown matrix[J]. Risk Management, 2006, 8(1): 61-76. doi: 10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250004
    [8] 陈国华,吴武生,徐三元,等. 基于WBS-RBS与AHP的跨海桥梁工程施工HSE风险评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2013,23(9): 51-57. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2013.09.009

    CHEN Guohua, WU Wusheng, XU Sanyuan, et al. HSE risk assessment of cross-sea bridge construction based on WBS-RBS and AHP[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2013, 23(9): 51-57. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2013.09.009
    [9] SAATY T L. Highlights and critical points in the theory and application of the analytic hierarchy process[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 74(3): 426-447.
    [10] 丁闪闪,刘小勇,王遥,等. 基于蒙特卡罗法的桥梁施工阶段风险估计[J]. 安全与环境工程,2013,20(6): 121-125. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1556.2013.06.024

    DING Shanshan, LIU Xiaoyong, WANG Yao, et al. Risk estimation in bridge construction stage based on Monte Carlo method[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2013, 20(6): 121-125. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1556.2013.06.024
    [11] 苏洁,张顶立,周正宇,等. 地铁隧道穿越既有桥梁安全风险评估及控制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(增刊1): 3188-3195.

    SU Jie, ZHANG Dingli, ZHOU Zhengyu, et al. Safety risk assessment and control of subway tunnel crossing existing bridges[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2015, 34(S1): 3188-3195.
    [12] 许振浩,李术才,李利平,等. 基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估[J]. 岩土力学,2011,32(6): 1757-1766. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2011.06.027

    XU Zhenhao, LI Shucai, LI Liping, et al. Risk assessment of water inrush and mud inrush in karst tunnel based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Geomechanics, 2011, 32(6): 1757-1766. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2011.06.027
    [13] 程远,刘志彬,刘松玉,等. 基于层次分析法的大跨浅埋公路隧道施工风险识别[J]. 岩土工程学报,2011,33(增刊1): 198-202.

    CHENG Yuan, LIU Zhibin, LIU Songyu, et al. Risk identification of large-span shallow-buried highway tunnel construction based on AHP[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 33(S1): 198-202.
    [14] 边亦海,黄宏伟,李剑. 可信性方法在深基坑施工期风险分析中的应用[J]. 地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1): 70-73.

    BIAN Yihai, HUANG Hongwei, LI Jian. Application of credibility method in risk analysis of deep foundation pit construction period[J]. Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2006, 2(1): 70-73.
    [15] 陈洁金,周峰,阳军生,等. 山岭隧道塌方风险模糊层次分析[J]. 岩土力学,2009,30(8): 2365-2370. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2009.08.030

    CHEN Jiejin, ZHOU Feng, YANG Junsheng, et al. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of landslide tunnel collapse risk[J]. Geotechnical Mechanics, 2009, 30(8): 2365-2370. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2009.08.030
    [16] 邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等. 层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7): 93-10. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0984.2012.07.012

    DENG Xue, LI Jiaming, ZENG Haojian, et al. Analytic hierarchy process weight calculation method analysis and application research[J]. Mathematics Practice and Understanding, 2012, 42(7): 93-10. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0984.2012.07.012
    [17] 张杰. 大跨度桥梁施工期风险分析方法研究[D]. 上海: 同济大学, 2007.
    [18] 周健,王红卫,吴邵海. 盾构法施工风险的多态贝叶斯网络模型分析[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(2): 186-190,202.

    ZHOU Jian, WANG Hongwei, WU Shaohai. Polymor-phic bayesian network model analysis of shield construction risk[J]. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science Edition), 2013, 41(2): 186-190,202.
  • 期刊类型引用(2)

    1. 魏星,程世涛,谢相焱,陈睿. 考虑强度速率衰减效应的地震滑坡SPH-FEM模拟. 岩土工程学报. 2024(08): 1753-1761 . 百度学术
    2. 衣天宇,卢波,邬爱清,徐栋栋,王瑾. 考虑复合滑动边坡内部剪切约束机制的刚体极限平衡方法. 长江科学院院报. 2022(06): 95-100 . 百度学术

    其他类型引用(5)

  • 加载中
图(4) / 表(9)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  606
  • HTML全文浏览量:  268
  • PDF下载量:  28
  • 被引次数: 7
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-10-31
  • 修回日期:  2020-05-28
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-07-06
  • 刊出日期:  2020-07-06

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回