Representation and Estimation Method for Technical Station Capacity Based on Three-Parameter Interval Gray Numbers
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摘要: 铁路技术站能力是衡量其运输生产效能的重要指标,为了体现能力的伸缩性并提高能力测定的精度,分析了三参数区间与泛灰数应用于能力表示的适用性,通过三参数区间保证能力上下界的取值范围,引入泛灰数来降低能力运算可能带来的区间扩张,并根据作业系统的状态界定了收缩、平衡和松弛3种能力. 通过多种区间估计方法的比对,采用JAB (Jackknife-after-Bootstrap)区间估计方法对铁路技术站能力的伸缩范围进行测定. 郑州北编组站的实例分析表明:相较于原有的能力定值表示方法,基于三参数区间泛灰数的能力表示与估计方法测定的区间宽度更小,区间位置更加精确,当置信水平为95%时,置信区间为[9.6933,10.2043],区间宽度为0.511;当置信水平为90%时,置信区间为[9.7358,10.1653],区间宽度为0.429;郑州北站通过能力的收缩度为0.99,松弛度为1.01,改编能力的收缩度为0.94,松弛度为1.07,说明能力测定结果呈现一定的松弛和收缩现象.Abstract: Capacity is an important index to measure the production efficiency of railway technical station, in order to reflect capacity scalability and improve measurement accuracy, the applicability of three parameter interval and universal grey number for capacity representation was analyzed. The three parameter interval was used to guarantee the capacity value range of upper and lower bounds, the universal grey number was introduced to reduce the possible interval expansion caused by capacity calculation, and then the concepts of contraction capacity, balance capacity and relaxation capacity were proposed based on the operation state. After comparing various interval estimation methods, Jackknife-after-Bootstrap (JAB) interval estimation method was used to determine the lower and upper limit on capacity. A case of Zhengzhoubei Marshalling Station shows that the interval width determined by the capacity representation and estimation method based on three-parameter interval gray number is smaller, and the interval position is more accurate compared with the original fixed value representation on capacity. The calculated confidence interval is [9.6933, 10.2043], the interval width is 0.511 when the confidence level is 95%; Similarly, when it is 90%, the calculated confidence interval is [9.7358, 10.1653], and the interval width is 0.429. The contraction of carrying capacity in Zhengzhoubei railway station is 0.99, the relaxation is 1.01, and the contraction of resorting capacity is 0.94, the relaxation is 1.07, which indicates that the capacity measurement results show certain relaxation and contraction phenomenon.
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方法 置信水平 90% 置信水平 95% 置信区间 区间宽度 置信区间 区间宽度 经典方法 [9.6523,
10.2529]0.600 [9.5947,
10.3104]0.715 文献[14]方法 [8.7143,
11.1650]2.450 [8.5501,
11.4716]2.926 JAB方法 [9.7358,
10.1653]0.429 [9.6933,
10.2043]0.511 表 3 能力不确定性描述方法的比较
Table 3. Comparison of methods for describing uncertainty of capacity
表 4 上行系统咽喉接、发车能力
Table 4. Throat receiving-departure capacity of up system
端别 咽喉道岔号码 利用率 性质 列车种类 共计能力 客车 有调车 无调车 过路车 马砦端(到) 4 [0.73,0.80,
0.86]接车 [71.87,77.56,
84.23][75.35,81.32,
88.31][147.22,158.88,172.54] 峰尾端(发) 2 [0.49,0.54,
0.60]接车 [14.97,16.52,
18.44][83.18,91.80,
102.42][98.15,108.33,120.86] 欢河端 15 [0.45,0.50,
0.54]发车 [138.87,151.25,
166.27][94.43,102.85,
113.06][233.30,254.10,279.33] 表 5 上行系统到发线通过能力汇总
Table 5. Carrying capacity summary on arrival and departure track of up system
车场 利用率 性质 到达解体 编组始发 无改编 部分改编 通过能力 上到场 [0.875,0.888,0.902] 接车 98.0 [108.60,110.31,112.06] 上发场 [0.929,0.937,0.945] 发车 65.0 48.0 8.0 [128.04,129.12,130.21] 表 6 峰尾编组作业占用时间
Table 6. Make-up occupation time on lead track
项目 占用时间/min 泛灰数形式 次数/次 空程 [8.11,8.94,9.77] 8.94[0.91,1,1.09] 216 连挂 [11.00,12.58,14.16] 12.58[0.87,1,1.13] 217 转线 [10.69,11.60,12.51] 11.60[0.92,1,1.08] 216 整场 [10.55,12.20,13.86] 12.20[0.86,1,1.14] 95 表 7 郑州北站上行系统能力估计
Table 7. Capacity estimation of up system in Zhengzhoubei station
能力 通过能力 改编能力 松弛 236.64 137.66 平衡 239.43 146.84 收缩 242.27 157.34 -
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