Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Multi-Climatic Coupling Sections of Expressway in Fog Area
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摘要: 高速公路雾区路段常伴随雨、冰、雪等复杂气候，综合考虑雾与雨、雪、冰等复杂因素耦合对高速公路事故风险评估具有重要意义. 引入“场”理论，构建高速公路雾区风险场模型，并基于模型对雾区多气候耦合路段的参数指标和道路风险进行分级研究. 首先，截取典型雾区路段进行栅格化分析，构建高速公路雾区风险场；然后引入PRA方法进行雾区风险场链式风险叠加分析，构建雾区风险场数值模型；最后以G5高速雅安至石棉段作为分析实例对模型进行验证，基于场理论给出了与当前国内气象预警分级相匹配的高速公路雾区耦合段风险分级指标，并将雾区路段的风险分级为四级，其中行车风险等级最高的为第1级．研究结果表明：场理论适用于多气候耦合的高速公路雾区段风险分析；高速公路雾区风险场是一种数量场和不稳定场，其不稳定性主要表现为雾区路段各气候参数的时变性；风险分级结果综合考虑了道路线形和环境特征以及基于时间变化的道路气候耦合特征，风险分级指标更符合基于时间动态变化的道路交通风险特性.Abstract: The fog sections of an expressway often experience fog accompanied by rain, ice, or snow, as well as other complex climatic conditions. Therefore, evaluating and researching the accident risk of an expressway with consideration of the coupling of complex factors such as fog, rain, snow, and ice has great significance. On the basis of field theory, a risk field model of an expressway in a fog area was established, and the parameters and risk classification of coupling sections in fog and multi-climate areas of the expressway were studied based on the model. First, rasterization of the typical fog sections of the expressway was performed to construct the risk field. Then, the method of probabilistic risk analysis （PRA） was used to analyse the risk field in the fog area and the chain risk, and the numerical model of the risk field in the fog area was constructed. Finally, the model was validated for the G5 Ya-an to Shi-mian expressway. The results show that field theory is more suitable for risk analysis of multi-climate-coupled fog areas of the expressway. The risk field in the fog area of the expressway is a number field as well as an unstable field, and its instability mainly manifests as the time variability of each climatic parameter in the fog area. Based on field theory, the risk classification index of the multi-climatic coupling section of the expressway in the fog area was provided, the index was matched with the current domestic meteorological warning classification, and the risk of the fog section was classified into four levels, with the traffic risk level being the highest.
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图 1 雾区多气候耦合段主要风险因子
Figure 1. Main risk factors of multi climatic coupling zone in foggy area
图 3 雾区路段交通安全风险评估指标
Figure 3. Risk assessment index of traffic safety of expressway in foggy area
图 5 雾区风险场等值面的链式风险模型
Figure 5. Chain risk model of the equivalent surface of the risk field in foggy area
图 6 雅西高速典型的雾与其他气候耦合段
Figure 6. The representative coupling section of fog and other climates of G5
图 7 高速公路雾区风险度指标分级
Figure 7. Classification of risk degree index of foggy area of expressway
图 8 G5雅安至石棉段风险分级
Figure 8. Risk classification of Ya-an to Shimian section of G5 expressway
表 1 雾区多气候耦合风险参数
Table 1. Multi climatic coupling risk parameters in foggy area
气候耦合类型 耦合风险参数 能见度 路面 车身稳定性 温度 雾 ⊕ ⊕ 雨、雾 ⊕ ⊕ 风、雨、雾 ⊕ ⊕ ⊕ 雪、雾 ⊕ ⊕ ⊕ 雪、雾、冰 ⊕ ⊕ ⊕ 风、雪、雾、冰 ⊕ ⊕ ⊕ ⊕ 
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表 2 雾区路段等级划分标准
Table 2. Grading standards of foggy sections
雾浓度 能见度/m 本文分级 中国
气象局公安部
分级能见度/m 雾区路段
分级浓雾雾墙 < 50 < 50 < 20 1级 20～50 2级 中等雾 200～500 100～200 50～100 3级 轻雾 > 500 > 200 100～200 4级
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表 3 自然环境亮度级别划分
Table 3. Classification of natural environment brightness levels
时间度 级别 自然环境亮度I/（cd•m–2） 子夜 1级 I ≤ 0.001 夜晚 2级 0.001 < I ≤ 1 佛晓 3级 1 < I ≤ 10 白天 4级 10 < I ≤ 100
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表 4 年雾发频次级别划分
Table 4. Grade division of fog frequency
级别 1级 2级 3级 4级 年雾发频次 > 60 30～60 10～30 < 10
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