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民航运输航空器着陆阶段偏出跑道事件分析模型

霍志勤 茹毅 韩松臣

霍志勤, 茹毅, 韩松臣. 民航运输航空器着陆阶段偏出跑道事件分析模型[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2012, 25(5): 895-900. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2012.05.026
引用本文: 霍志勤, 茹毅, 韩松臣. 民航运输航空器着陆阶段偏出跑道事件分析模型[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2012, 25(5): 895-900. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2012.05.026
HUO Zhiqin, RU Yi, HAN Songchen. Analysis Model of Transport Aircraft Veering off Runway during Landing Phase[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2012, 25(5): 895-900. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2012.05.026
Citation: HUO Zhiqin, RU Yi, HAN Songchen. Analysis Model of Transport Aircraft Veering off Runway during Landing Phase[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2012, 25(5): 895-900. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2012.05.026

民航运输航空器着陆阶段偏出跑道事件分析模型

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2012.05.026

Analysis Model of Transport Aircraft Veering off Runway during Landing Phase

  • 摘要: 为了克服故障树分析方法只能描述正常和故障两种状态的缺陷,利用故障树方法的逻辑分析优势,以及贝叶斯网络描述多态事件和计算概率的功能,建立了基于故障树和贝叶斯网络相融合的航空器着陆偏出跑道事件分析模型,提出了故障树与贝叶斯网络之间的转换算法求解该模型.根据1996—2010年中国民航着陆偏出跑道事件的数据,确定了着陆航空器偏出跑道的主要原因,并按重要程度进行了排序.研究结果表明:积水、反喷或减速板故障、复杂气象条件、驾驶术欠缺、前轮转弯卡阻、夜航或受灯光不利影响、对机组资源管理失效、积冰积雪是导致着陆偏出跑道的主要风险因素,其后验概率均大于0.3;应针对主要风险因素,制定针对性预防措施.

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2011-05-04
  • 刊出日期:  2012-10-25

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