Evaluation Method for Travel Time Reliability of Road Network with Stochastic Demand
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摘要: 为提高不确定路网可靠性评估的合理性,设需求服从对数正态分布,假定出行者在随机需求作用下能 够达到确定性用户均衡,运用路径算法获得流量,根据BPR(bureauofpublicroads)型路段特性函数以及对数正 态分布的概率特性,给出了路径出行时间的随机分布,以此为基础建立了路径及OD对出行时间可靠性评估模 型.用数值算例验证了评估方法的可行性,分析结果表明该方法能够合理评价需求及其波动程度、路径之间的相 关程度对出行时间可靠性的影响.Abstract: A model for evaluation of travel time reliability of routes and OD pairs was proposed. In the model, it is assumed that the deterministic user equilibrium (UE) is reachable under stochastic demands with a log-normal distribution. Route traffic flows are calculated with a route-based solution algorithm for UE, and the distributions of route travel times are determined using the BPR (bureau of public roads) type link impedance function based on the log-normal distribution. The feasibility of the proposed method was validated with a numerical example, showing that it was applicable to investigation on the influences of demands and their variations, and correlation among routes on travel time reliability.
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