用需求理论分析高速铁路的建设条件
The Prerequisite to Investment in High-Speed Railway in the View of Market Demand
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摘要: 用效用理论和多目标决策方法模拟旅客的交通工具抉择行为,建立各种运输方式的客运市场占有率模 型。以旅客时间价值和旅行距离为变量,研究社会客运量在3种运输方式中的分配,从而分析高速铁路对客运 需求的市场适应性,提出以旅客平均时间价值表示的高速铁路合理建设时机。Abstract: The author uses utility theory and multiple object decision making approach to analyze the choice behavior of the individual, then establishes a model to research the passenger traffic market shares of three travel modes, in which the travel distance and the value of time (VOT) are included as variables. After analyzing the applicability of high-speed railways to passenger traffic market demand, the author puts forward a recommended prerequisite to investment in high-speed railway, expressed in social average VOT.
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Key words:
- passenger traffic /
- utility theory /
- high-speed railway /
- market research
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