Early-Warning Model of Irregular Flight Management Based on Correlation Function in Extension Theory
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摘要: 为解决不正常航班服务管理中无冲突预警的问题,用物元分析方法,建立了以预计延迟时间、运力资源富余度、滞留人数、现场服务能力和意外事件情况为特征指标,以安全、注意、警戒、危险和危机为分类等级的预警模型.鉴于冲突中各种因素相互影响,采用简单可拓关联函数确定模型中的评价权重,并以定量结果确定预警等级.实例验证表明,该模型可用于对服务环境状况的定性评价,或提供定量的预警信息.Abstract: To solve the problem that there is no early-warning technique for conflict management of irregular flight services,the matter element analysis in extension theory was used to build an early-warning model with 5 indices(anticipated delay time,margin of resources,affected passenger number,service ability and event status),each of which has 5 grades(normal,attensional,precautious,danger and crisis).Due to the complicated relation among factors in conflict,a simple correlation function in extension theory was used to determine the evaluation weights in the model.The early-warning grades are expressed quantitatively.A case study shows that the model is suitable for evaluation of irregular flight services qualitatively,and for assisting early-warning decision quantitatively.
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Key words:
- extension theory /
- correlation function /
- flight /
- early-warning /
- model /
- management
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