Air Traffic Flow Combinational Forecast Based on Double Gravity Model and Artificial Neural Network
-
摘要: 基于四阶段法,采用双重力模型,预测全国空域的交通流量OD分布.针对历史数据的随机性和周期性,建立灰色广义回归神经网络组合模型,得出空中交通流量的预测结果.采用马尔可夫链预测模型,分析了组合预测结果.算例分析表明,对比华北地区空中交通流量统计数据,与回归分析和广义回归神经网络模型的结果相比,本文模型预测结果的精度更高、更可信.Abstract: The four stage method and a double gravity model were used to forecast the OD (origin-destination) distribution of air traffic flow in the whole airspace of China.In view of the randomicity and periodicity of historical data of air traffic flow,a GM-GRNN (gray model and generalized regression neural network) combinational model was built to obtain the forecast results.The forecast results were then analyzed by Markov chain forecast model.A case study shows that,compared with the statistical data of air traffic flow OD distribution in north China airspace,the forecast results by the proposed combinational model are more precise and credible than the regression analysis and the traditional GRNN model.
-
MOHAMMAD M,HASHEM R,ZAHI M.Short-term prediction of traffic volume in urban arterials[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,1995,121(3):249-254.[2] NIGEL P.Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport[J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2002,8(5):313-324.[3] Federal Aviation Administration.Terminal area forecast reports(2001-2015)[R].FAA-APO-00-7,Washington D.C.:Federal Aviation Administration,2001.[4] EUROCONTROL,Long-term forecast:IFR flight movements 2006-2025[R].DAP/DIA /STATFOR Doc216,Brussels:EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service,2006.[5] CHANG R,LEOU R,LU C.Distribution transformer load modeling using load research data[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2002,17(2):655-661.[6] 耿睿,崔德光,徐冰.应用支持向量机的空中交通流量组合预测模型[J].清华大学学报,2008,48(7):1205-1208.GENG Rui,CUI Deguang,XU Bing.Support vector machine-based combinational model for air traffic forecasts[J].Journal of Tsinghua University,2008,48(7):1205-1208.[7] 徐肖豪,韩峰,戴福青.空中交通流量统计和预测系统的设计与实现[J].中国民航学院学报,2005,23(4):1-5.XU Xiaohao,HAN Feng,DAI Fuqing.Design and implementation of air traffic flow statistics and prediction system[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2005,23(4):1-5.[8] 王炜,杨新苗,陈学武,等.城市公共交通系统规划方法与管理技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:36-60.[9] 中国民用航空总局规划发展财务司编.从统计看民航1996-2007[M].北京:中国民航出版社,2007:1-154. -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 1851
- HTML全文浏览量: 96
- PDF下载量: 453
- 被引次数: 0
下载: