Abstract: To predict the trajectory of civil aircrafts efficiently and precisely,a new concept,basic flight models,was proposed.Horizontal trajectories,altitude profiles and speed profiles were built using the models depending on the flight phases.A whole 4D trajectory was obtained by combining the flight states of characteristic points of trajectory,including position,altitude,speed and heading.A comparison between a departure simulation data with the actual flight data shows that the prediction method based on basic flight models can obtain the characteristic points of flight trajectory rapidly and predict the time an aircraft arrives at the points with a reasonable accuracy.