证券欺诈的预期模型
RationalExpectationM odel for Securities Frauds
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摘要: 用理性预期模型研究不诚实公司的欺诈行为,并分析证券欺诈的发生概率与监管效率的动态关系.研究 发现欺诈行为是证券市场的内生规律,不诚实公司对欺诈被发现的预期是欺诈行为是否发生的关键因素.对国 内相关数据的实证研究得到的结论与理论分析一致.我国证券市场的欺诈行为主要聚集在1996年,占总案件量 的40. 5%,而欺诈案件查处则聚集在2000年,比欺诈聚集期晚4年.证明案件查处时间过晚是导致欺诈行为聚 集效应显著的主要原因.Abstract: The fraud behaviors ofdishonestcompanieswere studiedwith a rational expectationsmodel to analyze the dynamic relations between the possibility of frauds to happen and the efficiencies of the regulatory authorities. It is found that frauds are a common phenomenon independentof the developing degree of securitiesmarkets, and the expectation by the dishonest companies ofbeing found is one of the key factors affecting the happening of frauds. The data from Chinese securitiesmarketwere taken to verify the arguments, and the result is the same as the theoretic analysis. Frauds in Chinese securities markethappenedmostly in 1996, accounting for40. 5% of the tota.l Investigations started in 2000, 4 years later than the happening peak of the frauds, suggesting that the investigations were too late, which is themain cause for the high rate of frauds to happenwithin a period.
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Key words:
- securitymarket /
- fraud /
- expectation /
- regulation /
- model
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