二次指数平滑法中确定初始值的简便方法

Simple Method of Determining the Initial Value in Secondary Exponential Smoothing Method

摘要: 在利用二次指数平滑法建立趋势预测模型时,必须合理确定初始平滑值.确定初始平滑值比较复杂繁琐·用初期指标值替代初始平滑值是一种简便的处理方法.通过推导,论证了这一方法的可行性,并给出了适用条件.
- 统计分析 /
- 预测 /
- 二次指数平滑法 /
- 趋势预测模型 /
- 初始平滑值
Abstract: When the secondary exponential smoothing is applied to a trend prediction model, its initial value has to be determined,which makes the process complex and time consuming. Through derivations, it was proved a simple method to utilize the initial index value as the smoothing one. The feasibility and applicable conditions of the method were presented.
- statistical analysis /
- prediction /
- secondary exponential smoothing /
- rend prediction model /
- initial smoothing value

点击查看大图