• ISSN 0258-2724
  • CN 51-1277/U
  • EI Compendex
  • Scopus
  • Indexed by Core Journals of China, Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
  • Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
  • Chinese Science Citation Database
Volume 21 Issue 1
Feb.  2009
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Article Contents
WANG Ruyi, WANG Ciguang, GUO Zizheng, TANG Jianqiao. Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based on Semi-parametric Regression[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2008, 21(1): 96-100.
Citation: WANG Ruyi, WANG Ciguang, GUO Zizheng, TANG Jianqiao. Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based on Semi-parametric Regression[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2008, 21(1): 96-100.

Forecast of Railway Freight Ton-Kilometers Based on Semi-parametric Regression

  • Received Date: 28 Jun 2007
  • Publish Date: 25 Feb 2008
  • To raise the forecast precision of railway freight ton-kilometers(RFTK),seven factors reflecting the supply capacity of railway transportation were selected out based on a qualitative analysis and the grey relevancy degree theory,and a semi-parametric regression model was established.The partial least-squares regression method was used to process the multicollinearity of variables,i.e.,the seven factors,and the non-parameter method was applied to express qualitative factors.The research result shows that with the established semi-parametric regression model,the least relative error of the forecast result for RFTK is only 1.7%,and compared with the linear regression model and the grey forecast model,the semi-parametric regression model has a better effect and higher precision for the forecast of railway freight ton-kilometers.

     

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