• ISSN 0258-2724
  • CN 51-1277/U
  • EI Compendex
  • Scopus
  • Indexed by Core Journals of China, Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
  • Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
  • Chinese Science Citation Database
Volume 22 Issue 5
Mar.  2010
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
ZHANG Ming, HAN Songchen, HUANG Linyuan. Air Traffic Flow Combinational Forecast Based on Double Gravity Model and Artificial Neural Network[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2009, 22(5): 764-770.
Citation: ZHANG Ming, HAN Songchen, HUANG Linyuan. Air Traffic Flow Combinational Forecast Based on Double Gravity Model and Artificial Neural Network[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2009, 22(5): 764-770.

Air Traffic Flow Combinational Forecast Based on Double Gravity Model and Artificial Neural Network

  • Received Date: 19 Sep 2008
  • Publish Date: 12 Nov 2009
  • The four stage method and a double gravity model were used to forecast the OD (origin-destination) distribution of air traffic flow in the whole airspace of China.In view of the randomicity and periodicity of historical data of air traffic flow,a GM-GRNN (gray model and generalized regression neural network) combinational model was built to obtain the forecast results.The forecast results were then analyzed by Markov chain forecast model.A case study shows that,compared with the statistical data of air traffic flow OD distribution in north China airspace,the forecast results by the proposed combinational model are more precise and credible than the regression analysis and the traditional GRNN model.

     

  • loading
  • MOHAMMAD M,HASHEM R,ZAHI M.Short-term prediction of traffic volume in urban arterials[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,1995,121(3):249-254.[2] NIGEL P.Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport[J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2002,8(5):313-324.[3] Federal Aviation Administration.Terminal area forecast reports(2001-2015)[R].FAA-APO-00-7,Washington D.C.:Federal Aviation Administration,2001.[4] EUROCONTROL,Long-term forecast:IFR flight movements 2006-2025[R].DAP/DIA /STATFOR Doc216,Brussels:EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service,2006.[5] CHANG R,LEOU R,LU C.Distribution transformer load modeling using load research data[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2002,17(2):655-661.[6] 耿睿,崔德光,徐冰.应用支持向量机的空中交通流量组合预测模型[J].清华大学学报,2008,48(7):1205-1208.GENG Rui,CUI Deguang,XU Bing.Support vector machine-based combinational model for air traffic forecasts[J].Journal of Tsinghua University,2008,48(7):1205-1208.[7] 徐肖豪,韩峰,戴福青.空中交通流量统计和预测系统的设计与实现[J].中国民航学院学报,2005,23(4):1-5.XU Xiaohao,HAN Feng,DAI Fuqing.Design and implementation of air traffic flow statistics and prediction system[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2005,23(4):1-5.[8] 王炜,杨新苗,陈学武,等.城市公共交通系统规划方法与管理技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:36-60.[9] 中国民用航空总局规划发展财务司编.从统计看民航1996-2007[M].北京:中国民航出版社,2007:1-154.
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索
    Article views(1851) PDF downloads(453) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return