Multi-level Recursive Forecasting Method for Road Accidents

In view of the dynamic and time-varying characteristic of a traffic system,a multi-level recursive forecasting method was proposed,and a multi-level recursive forecasting model for forecasting road accidents was established.With this method,forecast of road accidents is divided into two parts: forecast of timevarying parameters and forecast of road accidents based on the former forecast.The forecasting precision is improved by precise forecasting time-varying parameters.The death toll of a province in China from 1989 to 1999 was taken as statistical data to derive the forcasting model.Simulation result shows that the average error of the forcasted death toll is 5.8% compared with the real statistical data of 2000 and 2001.