Comparative Analysis of Traffic Conflict Modelling and Classification Results for Slow-Moving Heterogeneous Groups in Bus Stop Areas

The roles of connection and transfer in the travel chain of residents are played by bus stops. The high density of slow-moving heterogeneous groups in these areas increases the possibility of traffic conflicts among them. Existing studies mostly focus on the traffic conflict problem in bus stop areas, whereas the causal mechanism of traffic conflicts among slow-moving heterogeneous groups in bus stop areas and the heterogeneity among influencing factors are not deeply studied. Four types of bus stops in Kunming were taken as research objects. Data from 20 bus stops from December 2022 to March 2023 were collected, and the movement characteristics of slow-moving heterogeneous groups were analyzed. The severity of conflicts was discriminated based on the dutch objective conflict technique for operation and research (DOCTOR) method. A random parameter Logit model considering the heterogeneity of mean and variance was constructed to better identify the heterogeneity in random parameters and improve the safety of bus stop areas. The results indicate that in terms of random parameter distribution, the lateral conflict and non-motorized lane width for pedestrians follow N(0.455, 0.872²) and N(−0.541, 1.214²), respectively; the yielding and high speed for cyclists follow N(−0.399, 1.274²) and N(0.745, 1.043²), respectively. In terms of mean heterogeneity, mean heterogeneity exists in the lateral conflict when pedestrian speed is high and in the non-motorized lane width at island linear bus stops; mean heterogeneity also exists in cyclist yielding when riding on sidewalks and in high cyclist speed concerning cyclist density. In terms of variance heterogeneity, variance heterogeneity exists in the parameter of non-motorized lane width among the elderly and in the parameter of high cyclist speed among female cyclists. By calculating the average marginal effect coefficients, it is found that among the pedestrian group, alighting passengers have the highest probability of severe traffic conflicts, and among the cyclist group, counter-flow cyclists have the highest probability of severe traffic conflicts.