- ISSN 0258-2724
- CN 51-1277/U
- EI Compendex
- Scopus
- Indexed by Core Journals of China, Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
- Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports
- Chinese Science Citation Database
| Citation: | ZHANG Cong, YAO Lingkan, HUANG Yidan, QIU Yanling, TAN Li. Evaluation Method of Railway Schemes Along Rivers in Risk Areas of Moraine-Dammed Lake Outburst[J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2022, 57(6): 1311-1318, 1341. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20200696
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This study is aimed at risk assessments of railway schemes in moraine-dammed lake outburst risk areas in the southern Tibet Plateau. Based on the mechanism analysis of 74 outburst events in the study area, a multi-state Bayesian-Network prediction model is established considering the complex relationships among the influencing factors and high uncertainties of the outburst events. Taking the railway line engineering along rivers in moraine-dammed lake outburst risk areas as the hazard bearing body and combining the risk assessment of moraine-dammed lakes with geomorphological characteristics of the river valley, a calculation program of the railway scheme length in various risk areas and an evaluation system for railway schemes considering moraine-dammed lake outburst risk are proposed. In addition, the operation procedure of the proposed method is demonstrated taking the Zhangmu and Gyirong schemes of the China-Nepal railway as examples The results show that the Zhangmu scheme has a smaller route length in the moraine lake distribution area than the Gyirong scheme, and belongs to the short straight scheme from the perspective of route selection; however, the total length of the Zhangmu scheme in each risk area exceeds that of the Gyirong scheme by about 45%. Therefore, the Gyirong scheme is the better selection when considering the moraine lake outburst risk.
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