Evaluation Method for Travel Time Reliability of Road Network with Stochastic Demand

A model for evaluation of travel time reliability of routes and OD pairs was proposed. In the model, it is assumed that the deterministic user equilibrium (UE) is reachable under stochastic demands with a log-normal distribution. Route traffic flows are calculated with a route-based solution algorithm for UE, and the distributions of route travel times are determined using the BPR (bureau of public roads) type link impedance function based on the log-normal distribution. The feasibility of the proposed method was validated with a numerical example, showing that it was applicable to investigation on the influences of demands and their variations, and correlation among routes on travel time reliability.